Balochistan: China's Soft Under-belly

First, I must admit, my last post was a bit off: Iran, not North Korea, was the target of the "social media" tuning exercise this past week.

That said, I have always maintained that World War 3 will start in South Asia. Unfortunately, that conviction seems vindicated by recent events.

However, Iran is not the PRIMARY target of the Trump Hawk sabotage operation.

It would satsify Trump Hawks to watch Iran disintegrate, but that is not the PRIMARY objective.

The PRIMARY objective is a target far more volatile, important, and regionally determinant. In fact, the Trump Hawks already have it displayed, publicly, in Times Square:

Trump's Problem: Unilateral Sanction Policy is Ineffective

Trump's Hawks know unilaterally attacking DPRK pre-emptively is very risky, and so they want to save that option for a last-resort.

The plan has been to squeeze DPRK support, globally: that meant attack North Korea's trade(smuggling) and patronage network. I expatiated on this in prior posts, specifically concerning our sabotage of the North Korean off-shore fishing industry.

At Trump's request, various countries, especially in Africa, repudiated North Korea, demonstrating the waning global will to defend the Kim dynasty.

These piecemeal sanctions have been helpful but not decisive, and Trump Hawks can not afford to wait another year.

Trump Hawks: Need New Targets to Maximize Political Leverage on DPRK

Trump's Hawks need to maximize their leverage against the DPRK and the Kim dynasty.

However, until China capitulates, this is meaningless.

Where is China Most Vulnerable?

Most men in the "Empire Business" obsess over "supply-chains and trade routes". It is their fashion.

When a critical trade juncture also has a fractured ethnic population, intractable insurgency, and fractious political consciousness, then the question emerges, "On which occassion do we detonate THIS crisis?"

Balochistan: the Serbia of the 21st Century

Balochistan is about to make history -- but not in the manner which her people would desire.

Balochistan straddles both Iran and Pakistan.

Balochistan has been a restive region of Pakistan since Jinnah, with an active insurgency that has spanned decades, fighting against the Pakistani military and government.

China builds and operates strategic infrastructure in Pak-controlled Balochistan.

India builds and operates strategic infrastructure in Iran-controlled Balochistan.

In Balochistan, under 80km apart, are two major, strategic Naval and trade ports:

  • Chabahar, an Indian port (and base?) in Iran-Balochistan
  • Gwadar, a Chinese port and Naval base in Pak-Balochistan

If you wanted to start trouble for China -- THIS is where to do it!

Trump Hawk's Plan: Blackmail China With War in South Asia

India and Pakistan had a fierce skirmish, recently, along the LoC.

Both India and Pakistan continue to fortify the hot-zones along the LoC, and there is talk on both sides of an imminent, large-scale war.

Coerce Iran into Provoking Pakistan

By provoking a civil crisis in Iran, the Trump Hawks anticipate the Iranian regime will precipitate a Balochistan uprising, especially including Pakistani-controlled Balochistan, in order to stay in power.

The US then would negotiate a deal to support a perfunctory and superficial "transition government" or "reform deal", giving the regime a way out, as long as they betray China and implode Pakistan.

Endgame: China Defaults on Pakistan and DPRK Abandons China

By forcing China to defend her Southern frontier and prop-up Pakistan, it is anticipated that in the chaotic and fraught process of propping-up her deepest and most loyal ally, Pakistan, the Chinese leadership may begin to lose the will to defy the US, as the political, economic, and military costs begin to affect Xi's internal stability and authority.

More importantly, though, the Kim dynasty will witness the frailty of China, who is unable to protect even her best ally. It is hoped Kim will quickly repudiate China as an ally, seeing the true might of the US empire and the woeful weakness of China, and sign a strategic capitulation agreement with the US in exchange for sovereignty and security guarantees.

If this sounds very, very dangerous, it is.

Unfortunately, between this NeoCon fantasy and the hard reality, there lies a giant gulf: there is an iron-will within the Chinese elite, and there are many surprises for all players. Pakistan, also, is no doormat for India, and Pakistan has been fortifying and preparing for this final war for years.

Pakistani officers understand they have to only hold for two weeks, until the Chinese can pour-in from the flanks. Traditionally, the plan was to shuttle Taliban into the front as shock-troops, but regardless, Pakistan must hold for two-weeks to avoid defeat and give her allies time to counter-attack India.

Every great, horrible war always, always had a facile thesis and objective upon entering it. This one shall be no different.

I wish them the best of luck, but I anticipate surprises and stubborn, Asian defiance in the face of this overt and humiliating blackmail.