Brexit: The Great European Food Fight

Brexit was orchestrated by the most brilliant and ruthless minds in the UK's Imperial Elite. While one could characterize Brexit as a Tory adventure, the creators and initiators of this movement are not strictly Tories.

First, however, a lesson in very, very recent history.

Russia Under Siege: Banning European Food Imports

When the West put Putin under siege for his Ukrainian response, his wise central banker insisted on banning European food imports.

Why did she do this?

Inflation: food cost is the number-one source of inflation within an economy.

This means that if a competing sovereign seeks to undermine her neighbor, attacking her food market and price stability always proves effective.

European Farmers: The Most Powerful Populist Front

Europeans are sentimental about their farmers.

It is political suicide to inveigh publicly against European farmers.

Furthermore, European farmers constantly struggle, with many facing dissolution in the face of conglomerates or low-prices.

This has made European Farmers, especially in France, a faction you do not want to upset (at least if you want to drive anywhere).

Milk: The Most Dangerous Commodity in the EU

Every year, farmers in the EU protest Brussels, usually dumping a dairy product all over the roads.

In 2015, the EU removed milk quotas to manage the supply of milk on the market, which opened the system up for large-scale dairy production. That summer, protests erupted across the EU after milk prices dipped far below the cost of production for small family farms. Eventually, the EU came to a market stabilizing agreement to buy up the additional stocks of milk. However, organizations associated with the protests argue that this crisis relief is not a lasting solution.

The agriculture community within the EU constantly tries to form cartels and impose controls for price stability.

The LAST thing the EU needs is a bunch of broke Irish farmers dumping milk and cheese into a saturated EU and global market.

Brexit: Pitting European Farmers Against Each Other

As it stands, there remains no agreement on harmonising Irish food trade with the UK.

The UK remains Ireland’s key export market accounting for 35 percent of total exports with sales increasing for the year by 7 percent to over €4.5bn... “While the UK remains our most important market, these prospects provide an additional incentive for Irish exporters to explore new markets within the EU26 and beyond,” she[Bord Bia CEO Tara McCarthy] added.

The Irish politicians maintain that, in the event of no agriculture import deal with the UK, some magical arrangement or concession will be made for Irish agriculture exports within the EU.

This is a lie: there is no free rescue for Ireland's farmers... not without Ireland imposing a countervailing punishment on the UK.

The conceit that Ireland, at the EU's behest, can punish the UK without igniting a shooting conflict at home is naive.

Brexit: Force Irish to Fight With EU Over Food Trade

Even a "soft" Brexit, with a FTA with the EU, can still prove politically calamitous for the EU: without a plan for Irish food exports, any variant of Brexit, no matter how soft, precipitates a political crisis for the EU.

This drags Ireland, a banana republic, as it is, into the deepest, darkest, and most fetid sewers of Continental politics.

Food Prices Affect Monetary Policy

Food prices and agricultural cartels play a determinant role in monetary policy, especially as Europe claims to desire a fiscal union and "more Europe".

This makes these persistent surpluses of agricultural goods highly problematic, and sharing the pain even more dubious given the Russian food import ban.

Endgame: Something Breaks

With Brexit throwing the Irish into street riots in Brussels, it is hard to see why the UK will make any concessions to the EU on this thorny agricultural trade issue.